We finished digging into this yesterday. Specifically, I was looking at Peter's fill of 75 shares at $898.07. My first reaction was the same as Peter's - it looks like an error because it's so high. When I dug into it, I found out that it was as-expected.
What happened here is that a market order of 100 share hit the market at a minute when the total volume that minute was only 300 shares. Our default slippage model was in play, and only 25% of the 300 was permitted to trade (75 shares). The price impact is the default price impact constant (.1) times the volume share squared (25%^2), or .625%. (That's even the exact example in our documentation, not totally by coincidence!). .625% slippage on a close price for that bar of $892.46 gets us to $898.04, plus commission of $.03/share gets us to $898.07.
The next obvious question is, wow, is that slippage model being realistic? Is $5.57 slippage realistic? On one hand, it's not: presumably Google's order book is deep enough that even in a thinly traded minute you wouldn't slip that much. On the other hand, we're only talking about .6% movement of the price, and Google regularly moves up and down by more than twice that in a day.
In the end, the question is going to be how well the backtester holds up to reality. One of the things we're tinkering with right now in live trading is what execution algorithm to use with the brokerage. The leading contender right now is one based on arrival price. Using a method like that would almost always prevent the large price impact that Peter saw. I expect that after we get more experience live trading that we're going to revise our default slippage model. The real-world data will be very informative and helpful.
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