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Why Hedge?

I've spent close to a decade trading the markets and have dabbled in hedging. What I found was that all hedging implies is that you aren't confident in your strategy and are essentially assuring you don't gain as much when the strategy is winning and possibly won't lose as much when it is losing, but note the word possibly, meaning some hedging strategies will lose even when your strategy is losing.

No wonder most hedge funds have been crushed by the market.

So, I gave up on hedging and found other ways that make more sense and achieve the same "dream" of smoothing out returns. Namely, I started allocating less money and using more leverage. The "hedge" was merely having more cash lying around than before, and at times, tactically deploying it strategically, but rarely in the opposite direction of my book.

I also used a portfolio management style I call "plateauing" which means after my portfolio achieves a certain value, I sock the bulk of it away in cash and only trade with a small amount, which I can then grow in the market or add to from my income. This change alone was one of the biggest improvements I've ever had because it dealt with the idea of streaks, that hot streaks tend to break, and so you need to sock away profits and reduce position sizes after having success.

I find these methods better at achieving the goal of a hedge than actual hedges. It's unfortunate Quantopian has bought into the idea such that their contest entries require a hedge, when it seems the data about hedge fund performance show that it is simply not a correct way to approach markets.

4 responses

Yes it's unfortunate that they've chosen the road of long short hedging. I'm a fan of asset allocation and position sizing to manage risk. When you think about it, everything in the investment world is a hedge. A hedge can be as simple as exchanging cash for securities that increase in value relative to inflation so it's unfortunate that Quantopian has chosen a rather restrictive rule set.

My understanding is that beta is not gonna make money for Quantopian--they need something akin to a "pure alpha" fund to go after big institutional money. Regarding cash, it would seem that if a fund has a lot of cash sitting around, investors will want it back, so that they can manage it themselves, without paying fees. I'm no expert, but my hunch is that investors would hand over money to Quantopian to have it actively traded, but if it'll just sit around in cash for long periods of time, it would be more of an expensive money market fund than a hedge fund.

Regarding the contest, on https://www.quantopian.com/open#process, it says:

Your algorithm must be hedged. It should hold both long and short positions simultaneously, or be entirely in cash.

One way to hedge is to take a position in an ETF (or basket of ETFs), to reduce the beta, to be within the range -0.3 to +0.3, and to ensure that you are always long and short. If your strategy is super-duper, then this approach shouldn't kill it, and you can enter it into the contest.

Assessing black box algos seems like a difficult task. I bet it makes it a lot easier to analyze the data exhaust with hedged portfolios in place as a type of control for the process.

It would seem that the signal-to-noise ratio would need to be rather high to be able to use 10 years of backtest plus only 6 months of live trading to make a funding decision. To actually detect over-fitting, etc., one needs certain characteristics in the algo. Basically, a straight line is needed, and a very sensitive kink/slope detector is required to see if the 10 years matches the 6 months (a factor of 20:1 in time scales). If I had the job of doing the analyses, I guess I'd want low-volatility, monotonic returns. Even then, one is fighting a 20:1 difference in time scales, when more like 1:1 would be desirable, since we are talking about black-box algos/slot machines.