This is about Numerai, a little bit different take on crowdsourced hedge fund.
Just wish Numerai wouldn't provide such a tiny window to upload predictions for live trading. They give all this time to upload for the training data, then all of the sudden you get and email saying you placed and have 24 hours to submit for live trading.
A press release from Numeria, the rogue machine learning company:
*******February 27th 2016, an artificial intelligence named NCVSAI joined Numerai. His creator downloaded encrypted stock market data, trained a machine learning model, and began submitting stock predictions to Numerai. He uses an untraceable email address. He doesn’t share any code. He is completely anonymous.**
On April 18th 2016, the Financial Times reported that the creator of NCVSAI works in genomics and biostatistics.
In early May, NCVSAI uploads a set of global equity price predictions from his model. At this time, NCVSAI had the most accurate model on Numerai. His strongest prediction: buy Salmar ASA — a Norwegian salmon company.
Numerai’s hedge fund goes long Salmar ASA.*******
And, amazingly, the stock goes from 200 to 252 in less than four weeks!
How do they know whether the person contributing data is a biostatistician or someone acting on insider information?
If it is insider information, good thing he is completely anonymous, and that he gets paid with Bitcoin.
He must have an incredible machine learning model. I wonder if it works for other bellwether stocks such as Google, Apple, or Oracle, or only with the Norwegian salmon sector?
A Norwegian salmon company?
Something rotten in Norway?
do they know whether the person contributing data is a biostatistician or someone acting on insider information?
Numerai encrypts the sample data so you don't know what you are actually predicting.
@Frank
Yes as you likely know, I guess by now they have changed it to a pretty long time window for uploading predictions for live trading (now it could be close to no restriction, except during the gap time from one competition to the next?). I don't understand this - the dataset for competition is unchanged for the whole week but market prices move everyday. If they still use the "old" dataset over the whole week, they would be predicting based on a bit out-dated prices (outdated by up to several days given now their competition cycle is apparently weekly).
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