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Markets are usually not random. Prices can be expected to open at a certain distance away from the price they closed.

Moving averages are telling you what the property of the instrument is at that moment in time.

The property of the instrument lies within a spectrum of accelerating down, to down, to sideways, to up, to accelerating up.

Each moving average has a different sensitivity to its underlying instrument.

Taking three moving averages, the 10 day the 20 day and the 50 day we know that the 10 day will move faster versus the instrument than the 20 day or 50 day so this is the riskier moving average or the shorter-term trade.

The 10d will keep you in the short term trend.
The 20d in the medium term trend
The 50d in the longer term trend

We back test the S&P moving average weighing the allocations:
10d at 20% the 20d at 30% and the 50d at 50%. This should smooth volatility but may not be optimum.

Allocation is made based on the slope of the line at the close of the day.
When the slope is up there is 100% allocation.
When it is flat there is a 0% allocation.
When it is down there is -50% allocation.

This is a concept that should be back tested to search for the most effective combinations of different length moving averages and different weights and allocations to the slope of the moving averages.

Statistically significant extension of price from the moving averages can also be used to take partial profits.