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is no-short pairs trading possible?

There's a solid chance this is a really dumb idea, so I thought I'd throw it up on the forums in case someone can quickly shoot it down for me before I waste too much time on it.

Basically I'm looking into making a long-only version of one of the pairs-trading example algos by trying to find cointegration between the inverse performance of one stock and the performance of another, since going long on a stock is equivalent to shorting its inverse. I'm wondering if anyone who has looked into this kind of thing before knows whether or not it's possible for a stock-and-inverse-stock pair to be actually cointegrated enough to use in pairs trading.

This is definitely not meant to be a winning strategy or anything like that. My hope is that this will be a good learning experience that will be fruitful enough that I can actually carry it through to the end, though, so if you see any clear issues in this concept in general, feel free to save me from wasting my time. Also, if you have any suggestions, words of caution, or general advice for a newbie like me, I would totally appreciate it!

4 responses

The inverse ETF's are made for long only accounts, so maybe they will be helpful to you, but outside of inverse ETF's I don't think you will find very many inversely correlated pairs to try. There is (or was) a website somewhere that mapped all the correlation coefficients...

Thanks for letting me know! I'm realizing I was a bit naive to assume that any stock whose inverse performance is consistently cointegrated to another stock would actually survive in the market, considering that by definition such a stock would probably have to be a pretty terrible loser in the medium-to-long-term. I'd definitely be interested in a nice reference for correlations at-a-glance, but as for this half-baked long-only pair-trading project, I'm realizing it's probably doomed by design.

There might be such pairs out there; oil producers vs oil refiners, but it'll be tough to find a pair, might need three or more in the basket. Like oil producer + oil refiner + natural gas electricity utility, the idea being:

producer: + vs oil
refiner: - vs oil, + vs gas
generator: - vs gas, + vs electricity (which is hopefully a price 'taken', ie: fixed or uncorrelated)

I haven't tested that.

Hey Simon, I just realized I never actually thanked you for your helpful input. I basically decided to go look at something less complicated after realizing how messy this was going to become, so while I don't have anything to show for this line of inquiry, I appreciate your helping me short-circuit a line of fruitless (for my current abilities/experience) inquiry.