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How to replicate shorting VXX?

I have an algo that shorts the VXX near the end of the day, and closes the position as soon as the market opens the next day.

The algo is very profitable, so I want to continue doing this, but the fact that it is holding vix short overnight means that a blackswan event could not only wipe out the entire account, but also make me owe very large amounts to my broker beyond the account balance.

I tried replacing short on VXX with long on XIV, but the results are different. I also tried going long on SPY, again the results are different.

I am looking for a way to replicate shorting of VXX, but with a long position.

The idea is that I dont mind getting a wipeout from a black swan event; I just dont want to lose more than my account balance. So I basically need to be long something instead of being short VXX.

Any ideas?

9 responses

I'll give you something I think is worth trying if you promise to let me know how it goes, ok? :)

Deal

Cool. These funds do shorting allowing for us to go long on them, sort of mirroring SPY, can see that at http://finance.google.com/ entering spy and then adding these in the 'Compare' box right above the chart. They can also lower beta (contest).

context.hedge_shorting = symbols('RWM', 'HDGE', 'SEF', 'DOG')

The reason I'm so interested is that I've had various results with them and haven't quite taken the time to pin down why.

Edit: Maybe those can come in handy for someone else (having seen the message below now).

Thanks for the suggestion, but Im looking for something that would go with the market, not against it. Basically, shorting the VXX is assuming a reduction in volatility, which usually happens when the market goes up.

If it works with VXX but fails with XIV then you are not betting on volatility going down, you are betting on something else.

The system doesn't actually fail, but it is not nearly as profitable. The reason is that VXX and XIV do not have a 100% inverse correlation.

I'm not looking for 100% inverse correlation - I understand that doesn't exist - I'm just looking for some ideas of other things I could try.

Yes, well, feel free to try VIXY SVXY UVXY etc, but I think you'll find that your system requires shorting to be profitable.

Did you look at when these funds take their fees or resize their positions? That might explain the difference if you're only holding overnight.

Did you also check on the short availability. Maybe the effect you've found exists because it's not possible to consistently short vxx overnight. Or the spread is huge, much larger than Q's estimates.

Quantopian doesn't have options, but I'm sure your strategy could be implemented in a limited risk limited reward manner using an option strategy.

Short TVIX and long VXX. Equally weighted example.