Hey Zeno The Stoic or Anthony FJ Garner,

I'm not trying to be rude here but why the two separate Q accounts and what's with all this mystery? We'd had discussions before in this forum and I gathered that you're quite the skeptic when it comes to the validity or utility of financial predictive systems and yet you continue to pursue it. I want to know why? Again, not trying to be rude, you're quite an interesting character with great qualifications and mind blowing thoughts as articulated in your blogs. Just curious as to what makes you tick :-)

James
I was not trying to be rude to you either a week or two ago. I originally set up Zeno the Stoic since I was a little reluctant to publish some of the rather personal and esoteric thoughts under my own name. Yesterday I decided I didn't give a damn how odd people think I am, so I changed it all around and put my own name up there. I think I am right in saying I deleted or binned the other Quantopian account. In any event I intend to use this one from now on.
You are correct, I am deeply, deeply skeptical of predictive systems. I do not view VIX systems as entirely predictive - I view shorting the VIX as selling an insurance product. But of course, prediction is involved in everything, including whether the sun will rise today.
As regards life in general I am extremely skeptical. As regards quantitative investment "systems" I have hitherto over the years merely concentrated on "shooting the lights out" in my own personal trading which is why I have never taken much of an interest in Quantopian's requirements for their fund.
Recently however, after quite a long break, I began coding again and realized how very, very much I enjoyed it. So I began again and will probably be entering algos into the Q competition for fun. Equally, some massive HF in NY asked me to submit algos a while ago ( I seem to recall it was Two Sigma but would need to check that). I am also probably going to look harder at Kaggle and even perhaps Numerai.
In the long term I do not believe we can do much better than long only investment in global stock markets + diversification through other asset classes. I have seen so many Master of the \Universe come and go over the years.
But you know what? I need to keep busy and so I thought “why not”?
I do admit sometimes I go rather over the top in my comments but occasionally people on these forums seem so dense or far fetched, my natural politeness gets the better of me and I am impolitic enough to tell them so.

Anthony,

Thanks for your response. Now I understand why you have(had) two accounts, you ditched the other one. I never meant my above post to be about our discussion in the Q/Numerai thread two weeks ago. I am just intrigued by your enigmatic sense and view of the world, having read some of your blogs.

But back to financial prediction. It seems to me that your skeptism of financial predictive systems stems not only from observing the "Masters of the Universe" come and go but also from your frustration of not being able to come up with meaningful solutions that is sustainable to this very hard and complex problem. But admittedly, as an intellectual and practical pursuit, it is very addictive! And that is why you keep coming back to it. You consciously or unconsciouly, want to have that aha, eureka moment...the breakthrough that deep inside of you, you've always wanted. I have been pursuing the search for the "Holy Grail" in finance for the better half of my life and I can relate to your frustrations. It's just I see the glass half full and you see it as half empty.

So I leave you with my thoughts of the day: "The solution to Complexity is Simplicity"..."The search for profits is in volatility". Cheers, my friend!

"You consciously or unconsciouly, want to have that aha, eureka moment.."

Yes but I'm more likely to get that from psilocybin than my coding efforts.

Chortle.

LOL! Funny, I literally just finished reading "Alfred's Magic Mushroom" in your weblog. You're probably correct with that prediction. With magic mushrooms, you can have a constant flow of aha and eureka moments, perhaps, even see the beginning of time!

You're a great writer and I enjoy reading them. Keep it up!