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Fractal index: the power tool that try to defeat S&P

Defeat S&P is one fascinating thing, but it is also difficult, so i not said "how to defeat", i just to said "try to defeat".I develop a smart beta momentum strategy, called "fractal index", from the results of the backtest in one-year/thress-year/five-year/ten-year period, whether bullish or bearish market that can both performed well.

Before discussion of technical details,let us clear mind to face some original simple and basic question.

1.What is S&P? Yes, it is one sample of market benchmar. It is the famous index that everyone konws. OK, let us change a dimension to see,the fact it is a value investment portfolio, though nominally call it "Index".

2.What is good stock? Of course , the price is rising is good stock, that is blue-chip OR growth stock. I tend to think the market price reflects stock value but not entirely. Price rise is drived by buy order, and buy order is made from somebody think "it is more valuable", whether from the perspective of investment or speculation.

3.What is now? If we said moving average is the collective intelligence of stock price in time dimension, and we can said ETFs is collective intelligence of stock price in space dimension. I really like ETFs, like equal-weighted ETF index, fundamental ETF index and low volatility index. Can we try to do better?

4.How to do? Alpha stragety emphasise get profit beyond market, Beta stragety emphasise risk-averse under market. So, compounding alpha and beta stragety, i develop a smart beta momentum strategy, the basic idea is "build new portfolio better than S&P".

The demo of backtest capture screen is below, enjoy it:

  1. ten-year period backtest capture screen
  2. five-year period backtest capture screen
  3. three-year period backtest capture screen
  4. one-year period backtest capture screen
5 responses

Is this the algorithm you entered in the contest? I look forward to seeing the paper trading performance!

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would be nice if you would share the actual strategy so we all can learn.....

Yes, the develop idea is same, but i do some optimize according contest rule. With the lower beta, the algo has lower annual returns, lower sharpe and lower max drawdown. In fact, the results were not satisfactory. Maybe the algo trade trigger is too conservative and cautious,so the paper trading score is ugly.

It would be interesting to see how this perform on live trading. since a minimal thing may off-set it. It seems it is compounding a small difference and long back-tests looks nicer

According to the new rules of the competition on June, it seems that beta is everything, but I do not think so. Beta is just first step, we need to care about other important factors, like Sharp and lever, etc. Changing the parameters of old version algorithm,the ranking has be promoted very obviously. So, is it algo's game? or parameter's game? Maybe the algo's future is non-parametric algorithm or adaptive parameter algorithm, that is what I am studying.