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Covariance Estimation via Random Matrix Theory

Low volatility strategies have become more popular among investors in recent years. A topic that may interest the Quantopian community is robust methods for covariance estimation, and would be useful in building a robust minimum variance algorithm for trading. Take a look at Jim Gatheral's paper on using random matrix theory to filter sample covariance matrices. He shows that a minimum variance strategy in equities has stronger performance when using the filtered covariance matrix than the sample covariance or factor-based covariance matrices like Barra's. The motivation for using RMT is to separate a true covariance signal from noise by ascertaining how likely are observed volatilities and correlations to occur in randomly generated data, often with eigenvalue decompositions.

5 responses

I agree that this is a very important topic and many people will just estimate a covariance matrix and not realize how brittle that is. Some experiments here would certainly be interesting. scikit-learn has support for various robust covariance estimation methods and good explanations of the pros and cons: http://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/covariance.html Would be interesting to experiment with that.

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Don't some pretty simple covariance shrinkage methods do the job?

I think Meucci covers this in his book, and I'd be surprised if it wasn't in Grinold's too (but I haven't read it ).

This is the paper I was looking for! http://www.ledoit.net/honey.pdf

Simon - thanks for posting this paper. I will take a look at it. Both the RMT and shrinkage approach advertise improvements over naive direct estimation and standard factor-based models. It would be interesting to see the Quantopian community back test these different approaches.