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China or Greece: What Matters More for U.S. Markets?

I wrote this as a compare/contrast of U.S. exposures to China and Greece as an interesting use case for Quantopian's fundamental data. I think that Greece has been given much more attention than China, but China is much more likely to have an effect on U.S. markets.

This is also the first data backed opinion I've shared here, it was fun to put together. I'd be curious to hear what others think on the subject.

7 responses

Great insights!

A small typo in the last plot,

Portugal = get_country_data('PRT', dates)  
France = get_country_data('FRA', dates)  
Spain = get_country_data('ESP', dates)  

shouldn't it be Italy instead of France?

No offense, but your analysis largely neglects the varying risks of contagion. The reason Europe is a big deal is the quantity of Euro-denominated sovereign debt held by banking institutions, pension plans, mutual funds and so forth. It doesn't have much to do with the equity markets directly at all, in my opinion.

Thanks Han, that was a mistake, unfortunately I don't think I can update notebooks after they're posted.

Simon, I agree with you that the majority of the European issues are related to sovereign debt. I do still think that Greece is insignificant compared to China, Euro banks don't have much exposure to Greek debt and I think a deal will be made. I heard today that there's a tentative EU/Greek deal on the table now but I have not read up on it yet. I would not say that Europe as a whole is less significant than China though. Contagion risk and debt exposures would certainly be interesting to look into but Quantopian doesn't have the data so I just looked at the U.S. equity market. Sorry for the narrow focus and thanks for the feedback.

Not to get off-topic, but it's a horrible, saddening deal, and I am disheartened by the whole thing. http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/07/tentative-deal-strips-greece-of-sovereignty-makes-debt-relief-dependent-on-compliance.html

Not to get off-topic here.. but where can I find... the directory for.. primary exchange id being use in this code NYSE, AMEX and Nasdaq .filter(fundamentals.company_reference.primary_exchange_id.in_(['NYSE', 'NAS', 'AMEX'])), instead of using get_country_data. in the example I would like to use primary exchange basis to see... if this is possible.. cheers ;)

I tried... USA just to find out the financial leverage against china but USA alone... kernel always crash... try it USA maybe they can fixed this problem ;)

John, my guess is you are hitting an out of memory issue because there will be a lot of data returned. Try using only a few dates at a time.

Simon, that does sound like a pretty dirty deal. That article is pretty pointed so I'll have to read some other opinions and the source if it's not brutally dry before making conclusions. It sounds like they are putting a strangle hold on Greece though.