Everything I have seen on here reacts to price. It would be very helpful to know when you are reaching a major turning point.
Biological and economic systems have a lot of positive feedback, which gives rise to "momentum" and formation of bubbles.
dp/dt = ap
At some point growth is no longer possible and the direction reverses giving boom and bust cycles. How do you tell when the
direction is about to change?
This does not have an easy answer, if it was simple then people wouldnt lose money when investing.
Having said that, one of my favorite fundamental data points involves the BCI index which made of these pieces of data:
10-year treasury yield (daily)
3-month treasury bill yield (daily)
S&P500 (daily)
Continues Claims Seasonally Adjusted (weekly)
All Employees: Total Private Industries (monthly)
New houses for sale (monthly)
New houses sold (monthly).
The market is always forward looking, so it is a leading rather than lagging indicator:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator#Leading_indicators
If you look around the Federal Reserve Economic Data site ( FRED) at the St. Louis Fed, there are lots of good indicators to check out and combine:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories
You can also google: business cycles filetype:pdf
Keep in mind Keynes' famous quote: "Markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent."
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